GBP/USD is one of the commonly traded currency pairs in the International Forex Market. The Pound Sterling GBP is the currency of the United Kingdom widely accepted across the world as the United Kingdom is considered to be the 5th largest economy in the world. USD is the currency of the largest and dominant economy in the world. GBP/USD pair reflects how many US Dollars are required to buy GBP.
GBP/USD Monthly Chart on Short Term Time Frame
GBP/USD Forex Currency Pair concluded slightly negative on Monthly timeframe in February losing -0.19% of overall value in a month. The pair touched the monthly high of 1.3645 on Thursday 10th Feb but pulled back the next day. The pair touched a resistance of 1.3620 a couple of days back but was unable to penetrate through the resistance and lost the momentum continuing to decline in the downward direction.
The monthly RSI of GBP/USD closed at 50.05 showing a neutral state. Monthly Parabolic SAR closed at 1.4125 which was above the current level, this is an indication of a downward trend. The price is trading below HMA 20 and Fisher Transform 20 on monthly time frames which is a confirmation of a bearish trend on short term time frame.
On the other hand, the Volume and Money Flow Indicators are telling some story. The Value of the Chaikin Money Flow Indicator is trading above zero where the positive value of CMF indicates buying interest from the traders with small positions. The value MFI is below the 50% range indicating bulls losing interest with large position sizes.
The major support levels are lying at 1.2871, whereas 1.3071 and 1.3245 can act as minor support levels. The resistance level is at 1.3992, the GBP/USD can also face minor resistance at 1.3819 and 1.3619.
GBP/USD Monthly Chart on Long Term Time Frame
On the monthly timeframe, the GBP/USD closed below the major Exponential Moving Averages. It is trading below the EMA 50, EMA 100 and EMA 200. GBP/USD currency pair is trading above the Super Trend indicator and above the baseline of Ichimoku on a monthly time frame. The value of the MACD Histogram is negative and MACD crossover is also signaling a bearish trend on a monthly chart. The GBP/USD is moving in a bearish trend on a monthly time frame.
The GBP/USD made a weak Harami Bullish Candlestick Pattern sign of a Bullish Reversal on a daily time frame on Friday 25th February but it turned out to be a false signal due to low buying interest from traders and investors in the GBP/USD. Instead of moving up the currency pair continue to dive in a downward direction.
GBP/USD Monthly Technical Analysis for March 2022
GBP/USD is in a strong bearish trend on a monthly time frame. The USD turned out to be strong against the GBP. There are many reasons which resulted in strong selling pressure in the GBP/USD Currency Pair. One main reason for high selling pressure is due to Ukraine and Russia War, this war has disturbed the overall world trade due to the sanctions on Russian Trade and Russian Companies from the United State and European Union. This overall situation caused a rise in inflation and the prices of commodities around the world have increased. The price of Gold and Crude Oil also went up sharply in February 2022.
10 Years Historical Performance of GBP/USD in February
For GBP/USD the month of February has remained bearish most of the time, as 7 times the pair moved in a downward direction and 3 times in an upward direction in the last 10 years. Feb 2013 was the worst month where the pair lost -4.38% of the overall monthly value. GBP/USD’s biggest gain in February happened in 2015 with an increase of 2.43% in overall monthly value. The GBP/USD has an average loss of -0.0109% for February in the last 10 years.
GBP/USD Monthly Forecast for March 2022
The volatility has increased in the overall International Forex Market due to present uncertainty throughout the world regarding Russia and Ukraine War and high commodity prices. Our stance is to trade with caution in GBP/USD. The pair can pull back and recover anytime soon if both Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement and Russian troops’ withdrawal starts. The situation can get worse if inflation and commodity prices keep going up. Due to the strong bearish trend on monthly timeframe, it is recommended to Bulls to avoid going long on the GBP/USD pair with large positions on longer time frames. A Bullish Forex Trader can start accumulating GBP/USD on short-term time frames slowly and if the trend reverses in the coming days’ positions sizes can be increased.
For bears, the situation is very satisfying as the bearish trend can continue in the coming days. The bears should look for the 1.2871 support level as the GBP/USD pair can pull pack from this support level in the coming weeks. If the political and economic situation stabilizes a sharp recovery can be witnessed in GBP/USD from the support levels.
10 Years Historical Performance of GBP/USD in March
For GBP/USD, the month of March in the last 10 years performed both ways in bearish and bullish directions. In the last decade, March remained bullish 5 times and bearish 5 times. March 2015 was the worst month where the pair lost -3.99% of the overall monthly value. March 2016 was the best when the pair gained 3.18%. The GBP/USD has an average loss of -0.0032% for March in the last 10 years.
USD Performance against major currencies in February 2022
USD turned out to be bearish against most of the major currencies and moved in a downward direction against the AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY in February 2022. New Zealand Dollar came out strongly against the USD where its value increased by 2.81% in February 2022.
|Currency Pair||Change in Feb|
GBP Performance against major currencies in February 2022
GBP currency performed very against the major currencies. GBP is continuing its downtrend for a couple of months. Due to the present political and economic situation, the GBP and EURO are affected badly which resulted in the rise of the other currencies. In Feb 2022, GBP remained very weak against the AUD and NZD resulting in a 2.88% and 2.92% loss in monthly overall value.
|Currency Pair||Change in Feb|
USD Performance against major Commodities in February 2022
Due to the present global crises of supply chain and War, the prices of commodities shoot up. In February 2022 a major increase was witnessed in the price of US Wheat which increased by 21.90%. All major commodities also witnessed an increase in prices and caused inflation to shoot up in the last month.
|Commodity||Change in Feb|
|Crude Oil WTI||8.59%|
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